By Dr. Jerry Krause and Dr. Ralph Pim
For the past 13 years, Dr. Jerry Krause and Dr. Ralph Pim have been clinicians at the NABC Convention showcasing lessons from many of the all-time greatest coaches in the history of the basketball. In 2016, they identified coaches that helped influence what is now called basketball analytics.
What is Analytics?
Analytics is the systematic examination and evaluation of data, by breaking it into its component parts to uncover their interrelationships and interpretations. Qualitative analysis is subjective and involves thoughts and feelings while quantitative analysis is objective and examines measurable data.
Howard Hobson
Prior to the 1940s, there were very few studies measuring and analyzing the statistical factors that contributed to winning and losing in basketball. Howard Hobson wanted concrete evidence in this area and became one of the first coaches to analyze and evaluate the game statistically. He conducted a 13-year research study of shooting percentages and other objective phases of the game, and published the results in a book entitled Scientific Basketball in 1949.
Hobson was very concerned with the increase in physical play and believed that much of the problem was that the game was being played within a radius of 23 feet from the basket. His solution was to widen the free throw lane and create a three-point shot in basketball.
“The three-point field goal will act like a good cough syrup and break up congestion around the lane,” stated Hobson. In 1945, Hobson gained enough support for his beliefs to play an experimental game between Columbia and Fordham using a three-point shot and a wider free-throw lane. Hobson’s research laid the groundwork for three significant rule changes that forever changed the game of basketball: 1) the free-throw lane widened from 6 feet to 12 feet; 2) the three-point shot; and 3) the shot clock.
Hobson led the University of Oregon to the first NCAA Championship in 1939, directed Yale University to 5 conference titles, served as president of the NABC, and was a lifelong visionary and advocate for the game of basketball.
Dean Smith
In 1955, Dean Smith and Bob Spear devised a possession evaluation system at the Air Force Academy to more adequately assess the effectiveness of their offense and defense. Coach Smith also used the possession evaluation system as an assistant under Coach Frank McGuire and as a head coach at the University of North Carolina.
Coach Smith created the possession evaluation system because he did not believe the total number of points scored or the fewest number of points allowed were valid indicators of team effectiveness, because they didn’t take into consideration the tempo of the game or the total number of possessions. “Possession evaluation is determined by the average number of points scored for each possession of the ball by a team during a game,” said Smith. “Our goals are to exceed .85 points per possession on offense and keep our opponents below .75 points per possession through our defensive efforts.” (Smith, 1981)
Paul Keller
Paul Keller, a math teacher and high school basketball coach in Delaware, Ohio, created the Offensive Efficiency Rating System in 1960. “The specific objective of the system is to show points per possession and not just the points scored,” stated Keller. “Points in a game actually mean nothing, but points per possession mean everything.”
Keller used his rating system to chart the efficiency of the Ohio State University basketball team during their national championship season in 1960 and their 2nd place finishes in 1961 and 1962. Ohio State was coached by future Hall of Famer Fred Taylor. Players on the team included Jerry Lucas, John Havlicek, and Bob Knight.
Keller expanded his Offensive Efficiency Rating to contain not only points per possession, but defense efficiency rating, turnovers, field goal percentage, free throw percentage, and rebound percentage. His rating system became very popular throughout the United States with high schools and colleges such as UCLA, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, and perennial small college power Evansville.
The Analytic Era: 2000 to the Present
In 2004, Dean Oliver wrote a book entitled Basketball on Paper that became the handbook for basketball analysis worldwide. Oliver broke the game down by dividing points into efficiency and pace. He identified four key factors: 1) shooting efficiency; 2) rebounding percentage; 3) turnovers per possession; and 4) getting to the free throw line. Oliver is often referred to as the godfather of advanced basketball statistics.
Over the past decade, Ken Pomeroy’s research has brought coaches, sport administrators, and fans into the computational era through his web site. Pomeroy provides advanced analysis of the country’s 351 NCAA Division I men’s college basketball teams with metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo, and pace. He explains basketball on a possession by possession level and also projects the likelihood of teams advancing in conference and national tournaments.
Today, every major professional sports team and many collegiate teams either have an analytics department or an analytics expert on staff. Basketball analytics is the wave of the future and can provide a competitive advantage. But it is also important to remember that numbers alone do not produce results. People produce results and analytics are not currently designed to measure the competitiveness or “heart” of an athlete. “Advanced stats can take you to a certain point, but giving anyone a road map to how to win a national title is beyond the point of what advanced statistics can do,” stated Pomeroy.
This article appears in the Summer 2016 edition of TimeOut Magazine. To read the entire issue, click here.
